US Midterm Elections 2022: Republican majority House and Senate 70% likely, say betting

Political wagering sites now favor Republicans to gain control of the Senate and House in the US midterms, as voters head to the polls to cast their ballots.

No US states offer legal betting on election outcomes, so most of the action comes from online wagering markets based overseas.

British bookmaker William Hill on Tuesday morning gave odds of Republicans gaining majorities in both the House and Senate at 4/11, for an implied probability of 73 percent.

The odds of a split Congress, with Republicans leading the House and Democrats leading the Senate, were listed at 9/4 for an implied probability of 31 percent. 

Political wagering sites now favor Republicans to gain control of the Senate and House in the US midterms, as voters head to the polls to cast their ballots

In the House race alone, William Hill listed the GOP as a heavy favorite with odds of 1/25 to gain control of the chamber, an implied probability of 96 percent.

PredictIt, the New Zealand-based site that operates similar to a futures exchange, with participants buying ‘shares’ of candidates, listed the odds of GOP control of the Senate at 74 percent on Tuesday morning. 

It is a change from the summer, when Democrats were seen as more likely to retain control of the Senate. 

‘Broadly speaking, Democrats’ momentum from the summer has largely leveled off, with voters increasingly focused on Republican issues such as the economy, inflation, and crime, at the expense of Democrats’ agenda items, including Roe and guns, according to recent polls,’ said Benjamin Salisbury, director of research at Height Capital Markets, in a recent note, according to MarketWatch. 

Democrats were braced for disappointing results, anxious that their grip on the House may be slipping and that their hold on the Senate – once seen as more secure – has loosened. 

The party’s incumbent governors in places like Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada are also staring down serious Republican challengers.

Returning to the White House on Monday night after his final campaign event, President Joe Biden said he thought Democrats would keep the Senate but acknowledged ‘the House is tougher.’

The GOP was optimistic about its prospects, betting that messaging focused on the economy, gas prices and crime will resonate with voters at a time of soaring inflation and rising violence. 

Ultimately, they’re confident that outrage stemming from the Supreme Court’s decision to eliminate a woman’s constitutional right to an abortion has faded and that the midterms have become a more traditional assessment of the president’s performance.

‘It will be a referendum on the incompetence of this administration,’ Minnesota Republican Rep. Tom Emmer, who’s running the GOP effort to retake the House, said of the election.

With polls open across most of the country, no major early voting problems were reported, though there were hiccups typical of most Election Days. 

Tabulators were not working in a New Jersey county – potentially requiring hand-counting instead – and some polling places in Pennsylvania were delayed in opening because workers showed up late.