Deaths were nine times higher than normal in parts of Europe during the darkest days of Covid, official figures show. 

Bergamo, a city in northern Italy, recorded 156.1 deaths per 100,000 people in the week to March 20 in 2020 — 800.5 per cent higher than the average for that time of year.

This means it logged Europe’s deadliest spell during the Covid crisis, according to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). 

For comparison, Birmingham, where deaths spiked most in the UK, saw a 239.5 per cent rise during mid-April.

Nationally, Italy, the first European nation to be engulfed by the virus, saw deaths skyrocket the most.

The ONS looked at relative age-standardised mortality rate across Europe for every week between December 28, 2019 and July 1, 2022.

The figures show the difference between the death rate logged for each of these weeks compared to the average logged between 2015 and 2019.

Nationally, statisticians found that the peak in death rates was logged by Italy in the week to March 27, 2020, when 74.1 per cent more people died than expected.

Italy was the first country in Europe to be swept by Covid. It spotted its first case in February 2020, in the northern region of Lombardy, and its first wave of deaths peaked in March.

The nation’s high death toll has been put down to its ageing population and overstretched healthcare system.  

Spain (138.5 per cent) and France (50.2 per cent) logged their peak one week later, with deaths concentrated around Madrid and Paris.

The UK saw the most deaths in the week ending April 17, 2020, when there was 38 deaths per 100,000 people — 97.9 per cent higher than expected.

Deaths in England (38.7 per 100,000, 107.6 per cent) and Wales (34.8 per 100,000, 68.7 per cent) spiked that same week.

The fatality rate in Scotland skyrocketed in the week to April 10 (37.4 per 100,000, 71.7 per cent), while deaths reached their highest point in Northern Ireland in the week ending April 24 (28.7 per 100,000, 48.2 per cent).

The ONS broke down rates by areas — called Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics — of which there are 179 in the UK and 1,166 in Europe.

After Bergamo, El Hierro, one of the Canary Islands, logged the highest spike in death rates in 2020 (621 per cent), followed by Segovia, northern Spain, (620.4 per cent) and Cremona, northern Italy (554.6 per cent).

In 2021, El Hierro (595.7 per cent), Lungau, south west Austria (389.1 per cent), and Mayotte, a French overseas territory (379.1 per cent) saw the biggest increases.

The largest spike in deaths in 2022 were reported in Lungau (376 per cent), Außerfern in Austria (228.9 per cent) and Eilean Siar in Scotland (184.1 per cent).

The ONS also examined which areas saw high excess deaths for the longest period.

Bucharest, in Romania, recorded a death rate at least 50 per cent higher than expected for a quarter of all weeks over the 30-month period. 

It was followed by Sofia, in Bulgaria (17 per cent), and Birmingham (9.4 per cent). 

In the UK, Birmingham logged the highest death rate compared to the pre-pandemic average, with a spike 239.5 per cent in the week to April 17, 2020.

London (220.8 per cent), Manchester (206.8 per cent) and Cardiff (146.6 per cent) logged their peaks in deaths that same week. 

Since the pandemic began, nearly 7million virus deaths have been reported to the World Health Organization. The UK has logged around 230,000 fatalities whose death certificate has mentioned Covid as one of the causes.

CITY WHISPERS: Bean counters uncover mates rates at Superdry

By Calum Muirhead

Updated: 06:45 EDT, 24 September 2023

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By Kate Pickles Health Editor For The Daily Mail

Published: 19:00 EDT, 21 September 2023 | Updated: 02:03 EDT, 22 September 2023

Update: The Bank of England held interest rates today at 5.25 per cent – this column has had figures updated to reflect that.

Inflation was revealed to have dipped again yesterday to 6.7 per cent – a figure that just two years ago would have been seen as horrifyingly high but is now seen as something to be pleased about.

Despite the CPI reading still being a chunky number, it’s an important step on the road back to the ‘old normal’ – where both interest rates and wage rises are higher than inflation.

This is Money readers will not need reminding that falling inflation doesn’t mean life is getting cheaper, just that it’s getting more expensive at a slightly slower rate.

They will also be acutely aware a combination of CPI inflation at 9.9 per cent in August last year and 6.7 per cent this year, means the pound in their pocket has lost almost 17 per cent of its value in just two years.

But the ONS’s latest inflation figures did still contain two bits of good news.

Firstly, although inflation only inched down from 6.8 per cent to 6.7 per cent, this was a fall when a rise to about 7.1 per cent was widely forecast.

Secondly, core inflation – the reading that strips out volatile energy and food prices and tax-heavy alcohol and tobacco – fell back to 6.2 per cent from 6.9 per cent in July.

These two things point to inflation heading in the right direction, albeit it is highly likely a jump in petrol prices driven by the oil price spiking may push CPI higher next month.

Nonetheless, inflation is on its way down and economists suggest it could be below 5 per cent by the end of the year and keep declining towards the 2 per cent target throughout 2024.

A major contraction in money supply – the amount of new money being created in the economy – also points to disinflationary pressure.

> What falling inflation means for you – and where it could end 2023

Regardless of how swiftly CPI falls and whether the landing ends up being quite bumpy, it shouldn’t be long before the Bank of England base rate is above inflation.

The Bank’s monetary policy committee was widely forecast to raise rates again at midday today to 5.5 per cent, with a growing weight of opinion this may be the last rise.

Instead, the bank’s ratesetters opted to pause at 5.25 per cent, although further rises are not ruled out. 

That’s a shift from the inflation-panic forecasts in early summer when base rate was tipped to top 6 per cent.

> What the interest rate pause means for your mortgage and savings 

Rates may not spike as high now, but they will potentially stay higher for longer.

So, if the Bank sticks at 5.25 per cent into next year – or still moves up to 5.5 per cent – and CPI falls as forecast, by the end of 2023 we will be back to the point where base rate is above inflation.

That was the old normal, before the financial crisis and offbeat monetary policy arrived.

Since then, inflation has largely been above base rate, as the Bank of England kept interest rates on the floor.

This low-rate world was the ‘new normal’ that many expected to go on and on.

The recent inflation crisis that caught central bankers napping brought an abrupt end to that scenario and I suspect many ratesetters see the silver lining of this rude awakening as being a golden opportunity to get back to the old normal.

Part of the old normal also involved wages risen faster than inflation, which is something we have once again returned to.

Although current wage growth of 8.5 per cent is unsustainable long-term, employees across the UK will be hoping that as inflation moderates their pay increases remain above it.

Companies should back that idea, as it involves a return to the world of real pay rises and people getting a little bit richer each year – something good for a consumer economy.

As inflation falls, hopefully savings rates will stick above it – meaning a real return for savers.

Put your money into the top one-year fix from NS&I now at 6.2 per cent and it might be below inflation now, but you should make a real return on your cash over the next twelve months.

But savers should remain on their guard. Yesterday’s figures nudged down rate rise expectations and so will today’s rate pause – this will filter through to the best savings rates on the market.

Don’t expect too many of those 6 per cent-plus fixed rate savings accounts to stick around.

A fortnight ago, I warned of vanishing savings deals and advised readers to sign up to our Savings Alerts.

Shortly afterwards, Santander pulled its blockbuster 5.2 per cent easy access account. It only gave warning in the morning that savers had until midnight to get it.

If you were signed up to our savings alerts then you would have known and had time to act, as we emailed readers to warn them.

So, if you’re not part of the gang yet, sign up to Savings Alerts here.

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A million US deaths could be averted each year if mortality rates in America were on par with those in other rich countries, a damning report has found.

Researchers looked at the rate of all-cause mortality per population size since the 1930s in nearly two dozen peer nations, including the UK, Canada, Japan, Australia and 17 European countries. 

They found that despite the US being the richest, it has suffered more deaths per capita than any of the 21 other nations since around 1980, which have reached ‘unprecedented levels’ in recent years.

The study noted the opioid and fentanyl epidemic, gun violence, and obesity-related deaths, which have all been exacerbated by the Covid pandemic, are the reason America is an outlier.

The study, published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Nexus, found that by 2019, around 600,000 deaths could have been prevented if the US had similar mortality rates to its peer nations.

But in 2020 and 2021, this rose to 1.1million.  

Steffie Woolhandler, senior author and professor at the School of Urban Public Health at Hunter College, blamed America’s healthcare system, insurers, corporate greed and politicians for the avoidable deaths the country has seen.

‘We waste hundreds of billions each year on health insurers’ profits and paperwork, while tens of millions can’t afford medical care, healthy food, or a decent place to live,’ Woolhandler said.

‘Americans die younger than their counterparts elsewhere because when corporate profits conflict with health, our politicians side with the corporations,’ she added.

The United States was only one of a handful of countries on the list that does not provide universal healthcare coverage to its residents. 

Despite the number of excess deaths peaking in 2020 and 2021, the team from Boston University School of Public Health, University of Pennsylvania, Harvard Chan School of Public Health and Hunter College found America’s excess death rate had been worsening since the 1980s.

During World War II and thereafter, America had a lower mortality rate than peer countries. 

In the 1960s and 70s, the rate was similar to other wealthy countries. 

However, in the 1980s, the number of excess deaths began to rise, climbing to approximately 622,500 in 2019. 

Deaths then spiked in 2020 and 2021 during the pandemic. Those years saw approximately one million excess deaths.

In the years between 1980 and 2021, there were 13.1 million ‘missing Americans’. 

Study lead and corresponding author Jacob Bor, an associate professor of global health and epidemiology at Boston University, called the number of missing Americans ‘unprecedented in modern times.’

Nearly half of the missing Americans died prior to age 65 in 2020 and 2021, a level of excess deaths Bor said was particularly stark. 

‘Think of people you know who have passed away before reaching age 65. Statistically, half of them would still be alive if the US had the mortality rates of our peers. The US is experiencing a crisis of early death that is unique among wealthy nations,’ Bor said. 

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported life expectancy in 2020 was 77 years old, a decline of nearly two years from 2019. In 2021, life expectancy declined again to 76.4 years. 

In 2020, nine of the 10 leading causes of death were the same as in 2019, though five causes switched ranks. 

However, heart disease and cancer remained the top two, while Covid was newly added and took the third slot. 

Unintentional injuries moved to fourth place and stroke moved to fifth place.

In 2021, nine of the 10 leading causes of death remained unchanged from the year prior and heart disease, cancer and Covid were the top three again.

Unintentional injury and stroke remained the fourth and fifth top causes of death in 2021, respectively. 

During both 2020 and 2021, deaths among all ages increased year-over-year, except those among one- to four-year-olds, which declined slightly only in 2020. 

‘Living in the US is a risk factor for early death that is common across many US racial and ethnic groups,’ Bor said. 

‘Whereas most health disparities studies assess differences between US racial/ethnic groups, such an approach renders the poor health of Whites invisible and grossly underestimates the health shortfall of minoritized groups. 

‘By using an international benchmark, we show that Americans of all races and ethnicities are adversely affected by the US policy environment, which places a low priority on public health and social protections, particularly for low-income people.’ 

Accounting for the future years lost due to someone dying prematurely, researchers estimate that in 2021, excess deaths translated to 26.4 million years of life lost when compared to peer countries. 

Based on the study results and the trend of excess deaths in the US, Mr Bor is not optimistic mortality rates will rebound in the near future, even as Covid deaths fall to some of their lowest numbers. 

‘The US was already experiencing more than 600,000 missing Americans annually before the pandemic began, and that number was increasing each year. There have been no significant policy changes since then to change this trajectory.

‘While COVID-19 brought new attention to public health, the backlash unleashed during the pandemic has undermined trust in government and support for expansive policies to improve population health.

‘This could be the most harmful long-term impact of the pandemic, because expansion of public policy to support health is exactly how our peer countries have attained higher life expectancy and better health outcomes.’

The number of men seeking treatment for erectile dysfunction has soared in recent years amid what some have described as a ‘silent epidemic’.

Viagra – the ‘little blue pill’ – is normally associated with old people but the most recent figures suggest an estimated 30 million American men now live with erectile dysfunction – nearly twice as many in the early 2000s.

Around a quarter of under-40s are though to struggle to get it up in bed, which has been linked to a rise in obesity rates, poor mental health, and an overconsumption of pornography. 

Pill prescribing rates vary by state, but research shows the ones that lean left politically tend to have more little blue pills in circulation which, men’s health experts say, could translate to more open dialogue between patients and doctors about sexual health issues that are taboo in many conservative states.  

Dr Helen Bernie, Director of Sexual and Reproductive Medicine at Indiana University said: ‘What you see from that top 10 list, those are your more progressive states, right? New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, California, Nevada. 

‘Those are typically more progressive states where they have better reproductive rights so you would assume that maybe people talk about sex a little bit more, maybe it’s a little bit more ok to prescribe these medicines.’

Overall, Southern states had far fewer pill bottles in circulation, with the exception of Florida, where ED prescriptions made up 0.25 percent of the total filled there. 

‘Then you look at the alternative. Down south, the strong Bible Belt, there’s a lot strong religious tie and, just in general, people don’t talk about sex, we can only talk about abstinence or pregnancy. 

‘And so perhaps doctors aren’t asking their patients about sexual activities so they’re not prescribing as much of the medication. It’s taboo.’

It is for this reason that Dr Bernie said that the true number of men with erectile dysfunction is likely much higher than the estimated 30 million. 

If a doctor living in a conservative-leaning area where sex is not freely discussed does not bring up a taboo subject in the safety of the exam room, the patient likely won’t either.

Erectile dysfunction is often a biomarker for a man’s overall health. An inability to get or maintain erection could be a result of undiagnosed high cholesterol or blood pressure or even a warning sign of cardiovascular disease.

Dr Bernie added: ‘I mean, that’s the most simple question you’re going to have to ask: Do you have any problems achieving or maintaining an erection? And by asking that simple question, you will get an answer and it will open up the dialogue between the patients to be able to actually ask questions and seek treatment options for preventative health.’

Erectile dysfunction is most often considered in older men because of the many age-related changes the body undergoes such as naturally declining testosterone levels, weakened pelvic muscles, and a loss of the necessary nerve function that helps the brain communicate with other systems in the body that leads to an erection. 

But in younger men, the source of the problem is often psychological. Performance anxiety and high levels of stress can affect the delicate balance of hormones in the body and functioning of the nervous system.

Testosterone levels typically peak at around the age of 20 followed by a slow descent throughout the rest of adulthood. At their highest, testosterone levels should be anywhere between 300 and 1,200 ng/dL. Once men hit their mid-thirties, testosterone levels begin declining by at least one percent per year.

Pornography use and overuse can also contribute to ED. Constant exposure to explicit images and videos desensitizes the viewer, making the brain less responsive to sexual stimuli such as your partner standing in front of you naked. 

And repeat exposure to porn can lead to the same disruptions in the brain as do hard drugs. 

The brain’s reward system releases dopamine when something that feels good happens, whether it’s finding food in the middle of a desert, snorting cocaine, or watching hardcore porn. 

Over time, the brain becomes used to the images and videos and does not get the same heavy hit of dopamine when the person presses play. This hinders the brain’s reward system and makes it more difficult for the brain to get excited for the real thing. 

But people’s penchant for porn likely won’t change any time soon. Internet viewing has ticked up consistently over the past two decades, suggesting that the pool of young men with ED will expand. 

And as the US population gets grayer by the year, the prevalence of erectile issues could potentially increase still further, translating to even bigger profit margins for the companies behind blockbuster drugs like Viagra and Cialis. 

Bank of England interest rates: How high will base rate be hiked tomorrow?

• Markets are leaning towards a 25 basis point hike to 5.25 per cent 
• However, sticky inflation could push the bank into a bigger hike 

By Mike Sheen

Updated: 07:51 EDT, 2 August 2023

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The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee today voted by a margin of 7-2 to hike interest rates by 0.5 percentage points to 5 per cent. 

The MPC’s hand was forced into a bigger hike in its June meeting, having hiked by 0.25 percentage point rises on the last two occasions, after consumer price inflation failed to fall in May and held at 8.7 per cent. 

Its Monetary Policy Summary published alongside the decision also highlighted developments since its last meeting that have informed the decision, including soaring expectations of where base rate may peak, much higher gilt yields and a ‘notable’ rise in mortgage rates.  

However, it said it was undeterred from its mandate of returning inflation to its target of 2 per cent.  

Among the MPC members voting in favour of the 50bps hike were Andrew Bailey and Ben Broadbent, governor and deputy governor, respectively, and outspoken chief economist Huw Pill.

However, two members, Dr Swati Dhingra and Silvana Tenreyro, voted to hold the rate where it was at 4.5 per cent. 

Princeton-educated Dr Swati Dhingra is an associate professor at the London School of Economics, director of The Royal Mint Museum and a member of the steering group for the UK’s Economy 2030 Inquiry. 

She joined the MPC in September 2022 and has voted to keep base rate lower than the committee’s consensus at every meeting since. 

Silvana Tenreyro, who has been with the MPC since 2017, is an award-winning professor of economics at LSE, and has worked at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and served with the MPC of the Central Bank of Mauritius.

Tenreyro has been more dovish than MPC colleagues on nine occasions since the BoE began hiking rates in December 2021.

The MPC said Tenreyro and Dhingra’s position was based on two key factors.

It explained: ‘First, as the energy price shock and other global cost-push shocks continued to reverse over the course of 2023, goods price inflation should fall sharply, which, with some lag, would reduce associated persistence in domestic wage and price setting. 

‘In contrast with the strength in recent outturns, forward-looking indicators were pointing to material falls in future wage and price inflation.’

Secondly, the pair highlighted the ‘lagging’ affect of monetary policy, meaning that base rate hikes can take time to feed into the economy and impact inflation.  

Under this line of argument, the MPC said: ‘The current setting of bank rate would therefore be likely to reduce inflation below target in the medium term. 

‘Recent substantial increases in market yields would accentuate this, as they would mainly affect inflation in late 2024 and beyond, by which point energy price falls from their peaks and past rate rises would have lowered inflation significantly.’

The Bank of England has faced criticism since spiralling inflationary pressures began to enter the economy at the end of 2021.

The bank has consistently underestimated both the pace and ‘stickiness’ of consumer price inflation, and critics argue it should have started initiating interest rate hikes earlier and more aggressively.

This has led to the bank calling in external help to review how it forecasts inflation, following concerns from Westminster.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, Governor Bailey and Deputy Governor Broadbent have been on the winning side of MPC splits on every occasion. 

Tenreyro and Dhingra, however, are not outliers with regards to disagreeing with the majority’s decision. 

BoE data shows Jonathan Haskel and Catherine L Mann have been the most hawkish among their peers, voting for higher rates than colleagues on four and five occasions, respectively, since November 2021. 

Haskel is professor of economics at Imperial College Business School, having previously held senior roles at Queen Mary University of London, and taught at the University of Bristol and London Business School.

He was a non-executive director of the UK Statistics Authority until earlier this year, and previously worked for Competition and Markets Authority. 

Dr. Mann is a professor at Brandeis University who previously served the European Investment Bank, and held membership of the Council on Foreign Relations and the American Economic Association.

She was also global chief economist at Citibank from 2018 to 2021.

Markets expect the hawks will get their way, pricing base rate will now peak at 6 per cent.

Thomas Pugh, economist at RSM UK, said: ‘We are still sceptical that interest rates will need to go all the way to 6 per cent, as priced in by financial markets. 

‘After all, the MPC acknowledged that “the greater share of fixed-rate mortgages meant that the full impact of the increase in bank rate to date would not be felt for some time.”‘

‘Indeed, with at least 800,000 fixed mortgages due to move on to significantly higher rates in the second half of this year there is clearly a lot more pain to come for households.

‘But given the MPC showed no hesitation in voting for a 50bps rise today and the labour market will remain tight for a while yet there are likely to be further rate hikes. 

‘A 25bps in August and September seems likely but there is clearly a large chance that one of these hikes is another 50bps.’

Home blood test that could check for more than 50 types of cancer could change care forever and BOOST survival rates, NHS boss claims

• One million NHS patients with no symptoms will be enrolled in the world trial

By Shaun Wooller Health Editor

Updated: 02:56 EDT, 16 June 2023

European Central Bank hikes rates again to 22-year high – with more in the pipeline

By Daily Mail City & Finance Reporter

Updated: 16:51 EDT, 15 June 2023

Some links in this article may be affiliate links. If you click on them we may earn a small commission. That helps us fund This Is Money, and keep it free to use. We do not write articles to promote products. We do not allow any commercial relationship to affect our editorial independence.

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