Newt Gingrich served as the 50th speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives from 1995 to 1999

This is a Big Choice election for America.

There is no question that Republicans are poised to win races across the country in a red wave. But the magnitude of the victory and how it washes across the American political landscape will have profound implications for the parties, the major players, and the future of the country.

Here is what I will be watching and thinking about on election night, as the results roll in:

If the Democrats manage to hold on to control of the U.S. Senate and lose the U.S. House of Representatives by only a small number of seats, there will be a sense in the Biden White House – and among their left-wing allies – that things can continue as usual.

They will feel vindicated that despite everything that has gone wrong, the American people still trust them more than they trust Republicans. They will feel that their strategic decision to emphasize abortion, perceived threats to democracy, and the Jan. 6 riot have paid off.

If, as seems possible, the Democrats lose control of the House by a big margin, the Senate by a smaller but decisive margin – and also lose a number of key governorships – there will be a bitter battle for control inside the Democrat Party.

All the elements of the left will fight over what went wrong, who must pay for it, and what must be done to turn things around in time for the 2024 presidential and congressional elections.

With regard to the Republican side, two big questions need to be settled.

First, just how effective was President Donald Trump’s intervention in the nominating process?

No political leader in American history has had the kind of impact Trump has had on Republican nominations nationwide.

For a while, the media mantra was that Trump could nominate people, but his candidates would be too weak or extreme to win the general election. Liberal activist groups and even the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee meddled in the Republican Party primaries and supported Trump’s picks to prove the theory.

In the left-leaning media’s collective mind, this would solidify the idea that Trump might get the Republican nomination for president in 2024 – but would then lose the general election. However, there is a real likelihood that most of the Trump-supported nominees are going to win on Tuesday.

If that happens, the establishment media is going to have an impossible time turning the election results into a defeat for Trump. In fact, the stage will be set for a triumphant Trump to announce his run for president.

The second question is: Will Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis win his gubernatorial re-election by a margin so large that it will automatically make him a serious contender for president? And if Trump does not run, would DeSantis automatically become the frontrunner for the Republican nomination?

There is a real possibility Gov. DeSantis will carry Florida’s Miami-Dade County, which would be a remarkable show of strength.

For two decades, Miami-Dade, in the state’s southeast corner, has gone blue. Hillary Clinton won the country by 29 percentage points in her race against Trump.

But it looks like DeSantis will carry the Latino vote, which in Florida includes Cubans, Puerto Ricans, Venezuelans, Colombians, Brazilians, and people from nearly every Latin American country.

If he does, it will be difficult to argue against the strength of his candidacy for president.

With these key questions, Americans are going to tune into election night with great anticipation.

The size and shape of the red wave will emerge early as the East Coast states begin to report the voting results.

Here are some key indicators I will be watching for – from north to south:

In New Hampshire, Gen. Don Bolduc is now polling ahead of Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan, an incumbent that many assumed would be a safe seat for her party

Now with people in sticker shock over the cost of home heating oil (they are currently filling up their tanks for the winter) Bolduc is almost certainly going to win.

Bolduc is an interesting example of how different the Republican Party is becoming. He entered the U.S. Army as a private and served so effectively that he retired as a Brigadier General. If he wins, it is an early sign the Republican wave is real.

One of the most important races in the country is in New York between Rep. Lee Zeldin and Gov. Kathy Hochul.

During the one and only debate in that contest, Gov. Hochul got frustrated over the constant discussion about locking up criminals and turning to her opponent said, ‘I don’t know why that’s so important to you.’

This made her seem totally out-of-touch with average New Yorkers, who are horrified by historically high numbers of murders, rapes, robberies, and car jackings in their cities and state.

If Zeldin wins, this will be another clear signal of a big night for Republicans. In addition, it is likely that House Republicans will pick up a number of seats in New York State – another early indicator of the red wave.

Just south of New York state, in Pennsylvania, the race between Democrat Lt. Gov. John Fetterman and Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz is one of the closest in the country.

Fetterman started with a huge lead in the summer, but it has been melting away day-by-day. Polls indicate Oz is pulling ahead. And if Oz wins this seat, a Republican majority in the Senate is virtually guaranteed.

In North Carolina, the Republican nominee, Rep. Ted Budd is pulling away and will almost certainly keep that open seat for the GOP. If he were to lose, that would be a bad sign for the party

The Georgia Senate race is one of the hottest races this cycle.

Herschel Walker, the greatest football player in University of Georgia history, did so well debating Democrat Sen. Raphael Warnock that Walker is now the front-runner.

But Georgia requires candidates to winover 50 percent of the vote, raising the possibility of this race going to a run-off – a second election to determine the winner

With Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp likely winning in a landslide over Stacey Abrams (a once-rising Democrat star whois now fading) Kemp’s coattails may be enough to boost Walker above the 50 percent threshold to avoid the runoff.

However, there is a third-party candidate in the race. If that candidate peels enough votes away from Walker to keep him below the 50 percent mark, there will be a two-person contest, which almost everyone agrees Walker will win.

If Warnock were to somehow survive, that would be a big blow to the GOP’s Senate control.

Finally, in Florida there is going to be a huge victory for Gov. DeSantis – and an almost equally big victory for Republican Sen. Marco Rubio.

In addition, Florida is likely to elect four additional Republican House members. This will contribute to Rep. Kevin McCarthy becoming Speaker of the House in what will probably be a surprisingly large GOP majority.

The tide is surely in Republican’s favor.

These early reporting states will give you insight into how the wave is crashing, who and what it will wash away, and who it will leave standing.

For more commentary from Speaker Gingrich, visit Gingrich360.com.

All bets on red! Political betting sites offer final odds on the midterms – with bookies rating GOP majorities in the House AND Senate as a 70% likelihood

• Overseas gambling sites give GOP favorable odds on winning House and Senate
• Implied probability of Republican control of the Senate now around 70%
• Gambling on elections is banned for the most part in the US, but popular abroad 

By Keith Griffith For Dailymail.com and Associated Press

Updated: 22:27 EDT, 8 November 2022

What the hell happened last night? The highly anticipated ‘red wave’ turned into a light pink ripple… at best.

The nation is still waiting for all the election results to come in, but enough has happened to start to understand why so many Republicans are waking up this morning outraged and confused.

According to the exit polls, President Biden’s favorable rating is underwater, a majority of voters are angry and dissatisfied with the direction of the country, and more voters think Biden’s policies are hurting instead of helping them.

We have the highest inflation rate in decades. Crime is up everywhere. The Southern border is a lawless mess, and the American public is less optimistic about the future than we’ve seen in modern times.

The Biden presidency, to put it mildly, is not going well.

There was an expectation among Republicans, as well as many Democrats, that all of the polling laying bare Americans’ fears and frustrations would translate into huge GOP wins.

That just didn’t happen.

The expectations before last night were that Republicans would pick-up somewhere between 20-35 House seats and potentially capture control of the U.S. Senate in an historic wave election rivaling the Republican Revolution in 1994 and the midterm thrashing dealt to President Obama in 2010.

Pundits, analysts and pollsters have been speculating about this for months now.

But this morning, Republicans are white-knuckling it to the end and a GOP House majority, while still likely, is not even a sure thing.

Congressman Kevin McCarthy’s future as Speaker of the House, once thought to be guaranteed, is now officially in play.

The ‘red wave’ was a mirage and nothing of the ‘historic win’ Republicans were anticipating. Nothing.

This will go down as a giant warning sign and, hopefully, a convincing argument against the delusion that President Donald Trump is the future of the GOP.

Too many Republicans lost in an unloseable election last night, and they have no one to blame but themselves.

Trump’s influence in selecting and endorsing candidates is undeniable. And those candidates did not deliver.

Senate candidates like Trump-endorsed Dr. Mehmet Oz fell to John Fetterman, who delivered one of the most stunning debate performances in American history.

Dr. Oz cozied up to Trump early and embraced the MAGA platform. He ended up losing to a man still recovering from a nearly-deadly stroke about whom there are serious questions on his fitness for office.

In fact, nearly every major MAGA candidate and Trump-disciple lost or is likely to lose, with the exception of JD Vance in the Ohio Senate race.

In Arizona, Democrat Mark Kelly is currently leading against Trump-endorsed Blake Masters.

In New Hampshire, Democrat Maggie Hassan defeated conspiracy-spouting Don Boluc.

All the results in Georgia are still unclear, but Trump-backed Senate candidate Hershel Walker is trailing Democrat Rapheal Warnock, while Republican Governor Brian Kemp, who was insulted and belittled by Trump, sailed to easy victory.

There is a simple and easy conclusion to draw from this.

Trump’s MAGA is cancer and it is killing my party. And this should be the final nail in his coffin.

President Trump is no kingmaker, in fact, he is the opposite. He seems to have a knack for picking losing candidates.

That may be because it is more important to Trump, the narcissist, that candidates suck up to him, kiss his ring and vomit up his talking points, instead of running sincere campaigns that connect with voters in an authentic way.

Our electoral process is his vanity project and the Republican primary voters have been happy and willing to placate him. But it’s a different story in a general election.

There is one glimmer of hope emerging from this night of disappointment, of course.

Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida delivered a clean win and he delivered it big last night.

He ran on his record, policy issues and the culture war.

He governed his state so effectively during the Covid years that Florida became a safe haven of sorts for Americans who were sick of draconian lockdowns and the absurdity of wokeness in school and in our culture.

Last night, DeSantis flipped the historically Democratic Miami-Dade county from blue to red for the first time in decades.

Miami-Dade hasn’t voted for a Republican for governor since 2002 or for a Republican for president since 1988.

His appeal among Hispanic voters is undeniable. He carried roughly 65% of the vote in majority Hispanic precincts, that’s 16 percentage points better than he performed just 4 years ago.

It has poured rocket fuel on his presidential ambitions.

But as of Wednesday morning, President Trump is mere days away from an expected announcement of his third run for the White House.

We can see two clear pathways ahead. One leads to success and the other to failure for the GOP.

It is a very clear and easy decision, but never underestimate the Republican Party’s capacity to screw things up.

The GOP is not a Trump cult. The party must give the voters what they want and they’ve made it obvious.

Along with President Trump, every single person in Republican leadership who enabled this embarrassing midterm loss should be held accountable, and that includes Senator Mitch McConnell and Congressman Kevin McCarthy.

Too often, they look the other way, only taking cues from Trump, and expelling people, like Congresswoman Liz Cheney, from her role in leadership.

Not having diversity of opinions in the caucus alienates voters. And now, we see the result.

The Republican Party has a choice this morning.

Remain in the Trump cult and continue to underperform or start supporting serious candidates who care about policy issues, solving actual problems and, most importantly, winning.

To put it in jargon that Trump-land can understand: they’re a bunch of losers.

I hope we can right the ship before it’s too late – and I hope that ship is steered by Ron DeSantis

Donald Trump is said to be ‘livid’ this morning and ‘screaming at everybody’ after a lackluster performance by Republicans in the midterms – and is even rumored to be blaming his wife Melania for advising him to endorse defeated Pennsylvania candidate Dr.  Mehmet Oz. 

The House and Senate both still hang in the balance today despite the promised ‘red tsunami’ of Republican support. While results in key swing states like Arizona and Georgia are still pending, many are calling Trump the biggest loser of the night with Republicans swearing him off, and throwing their weight behind Florida Governor Ron DeSantis for a 2024 run.  

For Trump, the midterms were supposed to be an amuse-bouche before another White House campaign. 

But some of his most prolific candidates crashed and burned overnight.  Oz, a TV star turned politician, suffered one of the most embarrassing defeats of the night, losing to John Fetterman in Pennsylvania. 

According to The New York Times’ Maggie Haberman, who recently released a scathing biography about Trump, the former president is particularly ‘furious’ that Oz lost –  and is ‘blaming everyone… including his wife’ for advising him to support him in April. 

‘Trump is indeed furious this morning, particularly about Mehmet Oz, and is blaming everyone who advised him to back Oz — including his wife, describing it as not her best decision, according to people close to him,’ she tweeted.

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She continued: ‘There are people pushing Trump to reschedule his announcement next week, and several Rs have texted asking whether he will, but it’s risky and would be acknowledging he’s wounded by yesterday, something that some of his advisers insist is not the case.’ 

CNN’s Jim Acosta cites an unnamed adviser who said the president is ‘livid’ and ‘screaming at everybody’ today after last night’s underwhelming Republican results. 

Taylor Budowich, Trump’s spokesperson, told DailyMail.com such reports were ‘completely fake’ this morning. 

‘Out of the races that have been called, President Trump has racked up over 215 wins for his endorsements—a truly unprecedented accomplishment and something only possible because of President Trump’s ability to pick and elect winners. 

‘McConnell, on the other hand, whose job is to support Senate candidates, abandoned winnable races in New Hampshire and Arizona. 

‘As President Trump looks to the future, he will continue to champion his America First agenda that won overwhelmingly at the ballot box last night,’ he said. 

While Trump is adamant his night was a success because so many of the candidates he endorsed won, there are rumblings in the GOP that it’s time to ditch him. 

Those criticisms are hinged on the races in which Trump-backed candidates were expected to have more success, like Oz in Pennsylvania. 

Oz lost by 3 points – (three more than the 0.1 exit poll predictions. In New Hampshire, Republican candidate Don Bolduc lost to Democrat Maggie Hassan by nearly ten points. 

Fox News White House Correspondent was among journalists citing Republican sources on Wednesday who said it was time for Trump to go. 

‘GOP source tells me ‘if it wasn’t clear before it should be now. We have a Trump problem,’ she tweeted. 

One of Trump’s own advisers was cited by CNN saying Trump’s candidates were ‘bad’. 

‘They were all bad candidates. Candidates matter,’ they said. 

Other Republicans say it’s time to put Trump behind them.  

‘This is a pivot point for the Republican party. Donald Trump is no doubt in the rearview mirror. It is time to move on with the party,’ Geoff Duncan, the Republican Lt. Governor of Georgia, told CNN. 

Ignoring the races where his favorites lost, he told followers on Truth Social that it had been a ‘GREAT EVENING’.

In an interview yesterday, he said he deserved credit if Republicans won – but shouldn’t be blamed in the scenario of a loss. 

Five of his chosen candidates – Bo Hines (North Carolina’s 13th District), Sandy Smith (North Carolina’s 1st District), Mehmet Oz (Pennsylvania State Senate) and Tim Michels (Wisconsin Gubernatorial Race) and Lee Zeldin (New York Gubernatorial race) – all lost. 

Early analysis also shows that in counties with Trump-backed candidates, the Republican vote share increased by just 1.3 percent compared with 6.9 percent in counties where he wasn’t involved in the race. 

‘If they win I should get all the credit. And if they lose, I should not be blamed at all. But it will probably be just the opposite. When they win, I think they’re going to do very well, I’ll probably be getting very little credit, and if they do badly, they will blame everything on me.

‘I’m prepared for everything. We’ll defend ourselves.’ 

He is however said to be privately ‘livid’ that his candidates lost. 

CNN’s Jim Acosta cites an unnamed adviser who said he is ‘screaming at everybody’ today. 

He also took credit for Ron DeSantis 2018 win, saying he ‘was not going to be a factor’ in the race before his endorsement. 

‘He was not going to be able to even be a factor in the race. And as soon within moments, the race was over. 

‘I got him the nomination. He didn’t get it. I got it, because the minute I made that endorsement, he got it.’ 

‘Then he ran and he wasn’t supposed to be able to win. I did two rallies, we had 52,000 people each one and he won. I thought that he could have been more gracious. But that’s up to him.’ 

In recent weeks and months, a rivalry has formed between the pair, with each man widely expected to launch a 2024 Presidential campaign. 

At a rally this weekend, Trump referred to the Florida Governor as ‘Ron De-Sanctimonious’. 

Yesterday, Trump said it would be a ‘big mistake’ if DeSantis ran in 2024. 

Duncan, the Lt. Gov of Georgia, said Republicans would have had better success with a different pool of candidates.  

‘It turns out Mitch McConnell knew what he was talking about with candidate quality,’ he said, referring to McConnell’s prediction in August that poor quality would impact the result. 

‘If they would have just woke up 12 months ago, and stopped taking his lead and took the lead of what real Republican, real conservative policies meant and mattered, we’d be in a different place.

‘I wouldn’t want to be the one delivering him the news last night or this morning as to what the results of the candidates they supported and poured money into were, it’s time to turn the page.

‘I’m ready to move on. Who knows. Donald Trump is moving from a movement to a distraction for the Republican Party now.

Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, during an appearance on Good Morning America, said Trump’s instincts were ‘about himself’ and not ‘about the party’. 

‘The big problem is that everywhere, the atmosphere and nationally, where Republicans lost, they lost because we had inferior candidates. 

‘Mitch McConnell previewed this. 

‘Almost every one of these Trump-backed candidates lost. 

‘It shows his political instincts are not about the party, they are not about the country, they are about him.’ 

Doug Heye, former spokesperson for the Republican National Committee, told The Independent that Trump was to blame for poor candidate quality across the board, but said issues like the overturning of Roe v. Wade may have contributed to a general straying from the Republican party. 

Erick Erickson, a longtime GOP commentator, told the Washington Post: ‘Candidate quality matters. 

‘They weren’t good candidates. They had more allegiance to him than anything else.

‘The GOP might still win both [chambers] but this is not the night they expected.’ 

His constant teasing of whether he will or won’t run in 2024 may have put off swing voters, as the midterms effectively turned into a referendum on his politics. 

Other Trump backed stars such as JD Vance secured victory and more results are incoming, including the nail  biter in Georgia between MAGA supporter Herschel Walker and Raphael Warnock.

As of 6.30am ET, of the five Trump backed Governor candidates who have had results declared, three had lost, with four more results to come.

The former president lost four of the six House candidates he endorsed, and one out of the six senators. 

Bill Palatucci, a member of the Republican National Committee from New Jersey, said: ‘Trump candidates were a drag on the party and the messaging of all our candidates.

‘We were constantly having to distance ourselves from their support of the former president.’ 

Trump’s picks lost high-stakes contests in Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Hampshire. 

After summoning reporters and his most loyal supporters to a watch party at his Mar-a-Lago club, he ended the night without a triumphant speech. 

Nonetheless, he took to his social media platform to insist he’d had ‘A GREAT EVENING.’ 

In the biggest shock of the night, Dr Oz, who had been endorsed by Trump during the primary, lost to Democrat John Fetterman in the Pennsylvania Senate race.

Fetterman had faced questions about his fitness for office after suffering a stroke just days before the state’s primary, but nonetheless bested TV’s Dr Oz in a major rebuke to Trump. 

Former NFL star Herschel Walker, who was heavily backed by Trump, is in a too-close-to-call race in Georgia and could face a run-off. 

Democrats also held a crucial Senate seat in New Hampshire, where incumbent Maggie Hassan defeated Republican Don Bolduc, a retired Army general who promoted Trump’s lies about the 2020 election.

Pro-Trump House candidates J.R. Majewski in Ohio, Karoline Leavitt in New Hampshire and Yesli Vega in Virginia were also rejected by voters. 

It wasn’t all gloom for Trump, as he helped lift Republican Senate candidates to victory in Ohio and North Carolina. 

JD Vance, the bestselling author of ‘Hillbilly Elegy,’ defeated 10-term congressman Tim Ryan, while Rep. Ted Budd beat Cheri Beasley, the former chief justice of the state Supreme Court. 

While campaigning for Vance on Monday, Trump teased an announcement for his presidential run.

‘We want nothing to detract from the importance of tomorrow. You understand that,’ Trump said at a rally. 

‘I’m going to be making a very big announcement on Tuesday, November 15,’ he added, saying the announcement would come at his Mar-a-Lago property in Florida. 

Longtime GOP strategist Douglas Heye told DailyMail.com Trump was a distraction for many voters.

He said: ‘When someone says they don’t want to detract, get ready for some detracting.

‘Trump is all about Trump and after months of being on the sidelines – good months for Republicans – Trump had to make it all about him. Again.’ 

Another Republican strategist said that the results are already ‘baked into the cake’ and the former president throwing his name into the mix will have little effect. 

‘I think the cake is baked on the 2022 election and the specter of a Trump candidacy probably has little to no effect at the outcome. Had he announced his candidacy in advance of the election it might have been a different story,’ said strategist Ken Spain.

Strategist Jim Dornan told DailyMail.com Trump announcing on Monday could have been a ‘real problem’ for Republicans. 

‘Thank goodness he held off from announcing anything last night. 

‘That could have been a real problem in many of these close races,’ he said. 

‘Regarding next week, I think an announcement this quickly after the midterms may indicate some concern on his part that he’s losing his grip on the party and frankly, he’d be probably right about that.’ 

‘I don’t think however it changes the landscape significantly as far as who gets into the primary or not,’ Dornan added. 

He noted that potential contenders like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is term-limited out of office in 2027, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin in 2026. 

‘So would [DeSantis] forgo 2024 and look to 2028 when he would have been out of office for two years? Would Youngkin wait for 3? 

Trump’s numbers aren’t as strong as they were, so I think the fear factor among other would be candidates is dissipating a bit,’ Dornan said. 

In the midterms, many Republicans who backed his failed efforts to overturn the 2020 election lost key races to oversee elections in some competitive states.

Doug Mastriano, the GOP nominee for governor in Pennsylvania, lost to Democrat Josh Shapiro on election night. 

Mastraiano was seen outside the Capitol on the day of the January 6 insurrection and regularly communicated with Trump as the then-president tried to reverse his loss to Joe Biden.

The state’s governor appoints the secretary of state, who is the top voting official.

In Minnesota, Republican Kim Crockett, who echoed some of Trump’s lies about voting, lost her bid for secretary of state, which in most states is the position that oversees state elections. 

In Michigan, Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson declared victory over Kristina Karamo, a community college instructor who became one of the most prominent election conspiracists in the country. 

And in New Mexico, Republican Audrey Trujillo, who cheered on Trump’s effort to reverse the voters’ will in 2020, lost to Democratic Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver.

Races in Arizona and Nevada, major swing states where election conspiracists were competing for secretary of state positions, remained too early to call. 

But many democracy advocates and Democrats were cheered by the initial tallies in political battlegrounds.

‘Ultimately, some voters likely chose candidates in part because they were committed to telling the truth and protecting election integrity,’ said Ben LaBolt, a Democratic strategist.

Still, in Republican-leaning states, some election conspiracists did win secretary of state offices.

All told, half of the 22 Republicans vying to be secretaries of states – and overseeing elections in most states – have repeated Trump’s election lies. Seven endorsed his attempts to overturn the will of the people and remain in power.

In a further blow to Trump’s ambitions, potential Republican presidential nominee Ron DeSantis won decisively over Charlie Crist.

Voting finished at 7pm and such was the margin of victory – at least 17 points – that the Associated Press called the race in a little more than an hour.

By the early hours of Wednesday morning he had a 19.4-point lead with 99 percent of the votes counted, wrapping up a landslide. 

Having secured a second term, 44-year-old DeSantis has cemented his position as a star of the Republican Party and a possible 2024 candidate.

In his victory speech, he described the battles he fought in first term as COVID-19 shut down the country and culture wars erupted. 

Those were the arguments that powered him on to the national stage. And the scale and nature of his win – racking up votes in the former Democratic stronghold of Miami-Dade – will excite supporters with one eye on the White House.

The 44-year-old frequently tops polls of who Republicans would like to run for the White House in 2024 – if former President Donald Trump sits it out. 

For his part, Trump sees the danger and has been firing shots across the governor’s bows.

At a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday, Trump unveiled a new nickname for him: ‘Ron DeSanctimonious.’ 

And on Monday he issued a veiled threat.

‘I don’t know that he’s running. I think if he runs he could hurt himself very badly, I really believe he could hurt himself badly,’ said Trump.

He went on hint he was ready to go on the attack with personal details. 

‘But if he did run I could tell you things bout him that won’t be very flattering. I know more about him other than perhaps his wife – who’s really running about his campaign. 

The Senate is still on a knife-edge, with all eyes on the results in Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin to determine who will take the majority. 

Republicans are still favored to retake the House, but it will likely be by a slim margin. 

In Alaska, with three candidates on the ballot, two Republicans – Kelly Tshibaka and Sen. Lisa Murkowski – were dueling for the most votes. 

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy declared in a speech that Republicans would take the House, but networks had yet to call control of the chamber early Wednesday. 

US midterm elections 2022: Arizona still has 400,000 votes to count in its largest county, Nevada could not be called until TOMORROW as Georgia runoff is confirmed and counting drags on

By Katelyn Caralle, U.S. Political Reporter In Las Vegas, Nevada and Elizabeth Elkind, Politics Reporter For Dailymail.Com and Chris Matthews For Mailonline

Updated: 20:18 EDT, 9 November 2022

Uncertainty following the U.S. mid-term elections could cause a 13 per cent plunge in the Australian dollar and make petrol, cars, electronics and overseas holidays much dearer.

American President Joe Biden‘s power to pass legislation is in trouble with the Republican Party set to take back control of the House of Representatives.

Westpac fears the Republicans in the US Congress could block American government spending, which has the potential to cause the Australian dollar to fall to 58 US cents next year – a 13 per cent drop from 67 US cents now. 

The Republican Party’s projected gain of seven seats, so far, is significantly less than opinion polls had predicted with inflation close to the highest level in four decades.

But with President Biden’s Democrats set to lack a majority in the lower house, the Republican Party would have the power to block legislation and spending programs.

The Republicans are so far on track to win at least seven seats, with 212 electorates so far in their column, compared with 205 for the Democrats, Real Clear Politics data showed.

Counting is continuing in 18 races but if present trends continue, the Republicans are likely to have at least 218 seats for a majority in the 435-seat House of Representatives.

Westpac senior currency strategist Sean Callow said the highly-partisan Republicans could use their power to block American government spending.

The Republicans in 2011 used their numbers in the House of Representatives to force a government shutdown by refusing to raise the debt ceiling when Barack Obama was Democrat president.

Should the same thing happen again in 2023, Mr Callow said this could cause the Australian dollar to plunge below 60 US cents. 

‘If some of the more negative scenarios play out, then I do think we’re probably heading back to the high 50s – it could be 58, 59 cents,’  he told Daily Mail Australia.

‘If we are in for this sort of showdown, a game of chicken, then that could be really upsetting for financial markets – it does tend to spill over to the Aussie.

‘The Aussie is very much a good times currency so when things take a turn for the worst, then the Aussie dollar gets hit harder.’

A weaker Australian dollar, now at 67 US cents, would make petrol prices much dearer, with motorists in Sydney and Melbourne already paying $2 a litre again for unleaded.

‘It can be very noticeable in petrol prices, that’s one that gets passed through quite quickly and they’re priced in US dollars,’ Mr Callow said. 

Cars and electronic equipment like televisions would also become more expensive, a bit later, with those goods often ordered in bulk months in advance. 

‘In a higher inflation environment, they’re far more likely to pass through those cost increases to the consumer,’ Mr Callow said.

The Australian dollar’s fortunes are tied to global risk appetite, or sentiment on financial markets, more so than to commodity prices during a time of high global inflation.

‘There are still lots of hurdles ahead: global energy prices, war, how does China continue to deal with Covid? There are lots of reasons to be concerned about risk appetite,’ Mr Callow said.

‘They would definitely weigh on the Aussie if that comes to fruition.’ 

The US Democrats look set to retain control of the Senate, which means the Republicans on their own would lack the power to block President Biden’s potential appointments to the Supreme Court. 

But the Republicans controlling the House of Representatives means the Australian dollar weakens, making imports more expensive, with inflation already at a 32-year high of 7.3 per cent. 

Petrol prices surged by 18 per cent in the year to September. 

Some Republican strategists are saying former President Trump swept in to ‘make the election about him’ by revealing he will have a major announcement next week on the eve of the midterms. 

‘We want nothing to detract from the importance of tomorrow. You understand that,’ Trump said at a rally for Senate candidate J.D. Vance in Ohio on Monday night. 

‘I’m going to be making a very big announcement on Tuesday, November 15,’ he added, saying the announcement would come at his Mar-a-Lago property in Florida. 

‘When someone says they don’t want to detract, get ready for some detracting,’ griped longtime GOP strategist Douglas Heye to DailyMail.com. ‘Trump is all about Trump and after months of being on the sidelines – good months for Republicans – Trump had to make it all about him. Again.’ 

Another Republican strategist said that the results are already ‘baked into the cake’ and the former president throwing his name into the mix will have little effect. 

‘I think the cake is baked on the 2022 election and the specter of a Trump candidacy probably has little to no effect at the outcome. Had he announced his candidacy in advance of the election it might have been a different story,’ said strategist Ken Spain.

Strategist Jim Dornan told DailyMail.com Trump announcing on Monday could have been a ‘real problem’ for Republicans.

‘Thank goodness he held off from announcing anything last night. That could have been a real problem in many of these close races,’ he said. ‘Regarding next week, I think an announcement this quickly after the midterms may indicate some concern on his part that he’s losing his grip on the party and frankly, he’d be probably right about that.’ 

‘I don’t think however it changes the landscape significantly as far as who gets into the primary or not,’ Dornan added. He noted that potential contenders like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is term-limited out of office in 2027, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin in 2026. 

‘So would [DeSantis] forgo 2024 and look to 2028 when he would have been out of office for two years? Would Youngkin wait for 3? Trump’s numbers aren’t as strong as they were, so I think the fear factor among other would be candidates is dissipating a bit,’ Dornan said. 

Trump insiders said the former president was gunning to announce his run before the midterm elections. Many urged him to wait, in part to avoid turning the election into a referendum on him and partly to avoid blame should Republicans underperform on Tuesday. 

But the former president is eager to piggyback off GOP momentum and after endorsing nearly 300 candidates, and also to signal to other Republicans who have signaled they might want to run to back off. 

Among Trump’s most formidable potential GOP opponents is DeSantis, who is running his own reelection race for governor that he looks poised to win. But if Trump announces just after midterms, DeSantis will have just won reelection for governor and would be hard-pressed to immediately throw his hat into the ring for the presidency. 

In Ohio, where Trump announced his announcement, venture capitalist and Hillbilly Elegy author J.D. Vance now is running eight points ahead of Democrat Tim Ryan for the open Senate seat, according to Real Clear Politics. 

During Trump’s speech he also hammered Democrats on crime levels and the economy, both of which are expected to be top issues for voters and ones that Republicans have largely led on in the polls.

‘If you want to stop the destruction of our country and save the American dream, then tomorrow you must vote Republican in a giant red wave that we’ve all been hearing about,’ Trump said. 

Republicans ride into Tuesday comfortably poised to take the majority in the House, and with a decent shot at wresting power in the Senate. 

If that happens it will be in no small way down to Trump’s impact on the midterm elections and an unlikely band of outside candidates who have turned longshot campaigns into toss-up races.

• RealClearPolitics forecasts a decisive Republican majority in the House of Representatives and a likely win in the Senate
• A GOP aide told DailyMail.com that a slim win in the Senate could lead to bigger gains in 2024, when more Democratic seats are up for grabs than Republican
• The economy is still top of mind for most voters, and an albatross for Democratic candidates as Republicans tie them to Biden’s financial policies
• Trump promised a ‘big announcement’ on November 15, which has prompted some Republican fears that the specter of a Trump 2024 announcement would put off Independents
• President Joe Biden told reporters on Monday night that it would be ‘difficult’ to govern with a Republican majority in both chambers of Congress 

But questions arise whether injecting Trump into the races could motivate Democratic turnout against Republicans and whether it would motivate Republicans in favor of the former president or turn them off.   

Before Trump named November 15 as the date to watch, longtime ally Rep. Matt Gaetz urged him on Twitter to announce a run Monday night. 

‘To all the press texting & calling me: Trump should announce tonight His candidates won the primaries Biden’s central message was the ‘ULTRA MAGA’ scare And we are going to win BIGLY!,’ the Florida Republican said. ‘Trump deserves all the credit for this wave election & announcing tonight he will seize it.’

Trump has been increasingly overt about his plans, saying in recent days he would ‘very, very, very probably’ run again and would be formalizing his intentions ‘very, very soon.’ 

‘I will probably have to do it again but stay tuned,’ he said Sunday night in Miami. ‘Stay tuned to tomorrow night in the great state of Ohio.’ 

Ohio Republican political strategist and attorney Mehek Cooke said she never believed Trump would announce his run in Ohio, but thought it was ‘definitely motivating’ to tease at a run before elections. 

‘He’s going to go to Florida. I think that’s the best place to announce. It’s one of the strongest states in our country right now, in terms of rebounding out of COVID and all the policies that we’ve seen out of that state, so I’m not surprised he did announce yesterday,’ she told DailyMail.com.

‘But I think it’s definitely motivating for Republicans to get out and vote,’ Cooke added, ‘J.D. Vance in Ohio, was behind initially until President Trump came in and endorsed him during the primary. So he has been influential and instrumental in helping a lot of voters decide who to vote for in key races.’ 

Dr. Adam Quinn, U.S. political science professor at the University of Birmingham, said that Republican operatives were likely to find the announcement an ‘unwelcome distraction’ at the 11th hour of campaigning.   

‘Most Republicans candidates and operatives will regard news reports about Trump’s plans to announce his presidential candidacy early as an unwelcome distraction from their core campaign themes. The former president is not widely popular with the general electorate, and in most cases Democrats will welcome the opportunity to make Trump an issue in voters’ minds even when he is not on the ballot himself.’

But Trump seemed unconcerned about the prospects of detracting from down-ballot Republicans, telling reporters after casting his own ballot in Palm Beach, Fla. on Tuesday he was ‘looking forward’ to next week’s announcement.  

Asked about his potential 2024 candidacy while in Palm Beach, Trump replied: ‘I think Tuesday (Nov. 15) will be a very exciting day for a lot of people, and I look forward to seeing you at Mar-a-Lago.’

‘I think we’re going to have a great night, it’s going to be great for the country,’ he told reporters of the midterms after casting his ballot.

‘No matter who you vote for, you have to vote. This is going to be a very important election.’ 

Donald Trump tried to take credit for his GOP rival Ron DeSantis and his meteoric rise through the party last night, insisting the Florida Governor would be nowhere today if it wasn’t for his 2018 endorsement. 

DeSantis stormed to victory yesterday, defeating Democrat Charlie Crist by a whopping 19 points in yesterday’s midterm and flipping the blue stronghold of Miami Dade county. 

He is now being praised as the future of the Republican party, with many hopeful he will announce a 2024 Presidential Run. 

Trump – who watched from Mar-a-Lago last night as many of his chosen candidates lost – is not among them. 

After warning DeSantis against a White House run yesterday by threatening that he ‘knows more about him than his wife’, Trump gave an interview to NewsNation where he tried to take credit for DeSantis’ entire career. 

‘He was not going to be able to even be a factor in the race. And as soon within moments, the race was over. I got him the nomination. He didn’t get it. I got it, because the minute I made that endorsement, he got it.’ 

‘Then he ran and he wasn’t supposed to be able to win. I did two rallies, we had 52,000 people each one and he won. 

‘I thought that he could have been more gracious. But that’s up to him.’ 

DeSantis won yesterday by 19 points – a huge margin and one he couldn’t have dreamed of in 2018 when he clinched victory by just 1 point – after being endorsed by Trump. 

It seemed like a political match made in heaven; DeSantis even posed with his kids and a copy of Trump’s The Art of the Deal book to pledge his allegiance. 

But in recent weeks and months, a rivalry has formed between the pair, down mostly to rumors that both men are eyeing a 2024 Presidential campaign. 

At a rally this weekend, Trump referred to the Florida Governor as ‘Ron De-Sanctimonious’. 

Yesterday, Trump said it would be a ‘big mistake’ if DeSantis ran again. 

‘I don’t know that he’s running. I think if he runs he could hurt himself very badly.

‘I think he would be making a mistake. I think the base would not like it.’ 

He also threatened DeSantis and warned him against a 2024 bid. 

‘If he runs, he runs. If he did run, I will tell you things about him that won’t be very flattering. 

‘I know more about him than anybody other than perhaps his wife, who is really running his campaign.’ 

Ignoring the races where his favorites lost, he told followers on Truth Social that it had been a ‘GREAT EVENING’. 

He is however said to be privately ‘livid’ that his candidates lost. 

CNN’s Jim Acosta cites an unnamed adviser who said he is ‘screaming at everybody’ today. 

In an interview yesterday, he said he deserved credit if Republicans won – but shouldn’t be blamed in the scenario of a loss. 

‘If they win I should get all the credit. And if they lose, I should not be blamed at all. But it will probably be just the opposite. 

‘When they win, I think they’re going to do very well, I’ll probably be getting very little credit, and if they do badly, they will blame everything on me.

‘I’m prepared for everything. We’ll defend ourselves.’ 

He also took credit for Ron DeSantis 2018 win, saying he ‘was not going to be a factor’ in the race before his endorsement. 

Trump is being blamed for the disappointing Republican results overnight. 

Many say it’s time to ‘move on’ from the Trump era, and that his selection of ‘flawed’ candidates was to blame for underwhelming results. 

Republicans may still take both the House and the Senate, though a result is not expected for days if not months. 

They did not perform as spectacularly as had been predicted, however. 

Cautious while the remaining results trickle in, Republicans launched a stinging post-mortem on Wednesday morning and harked back to Mitch McConnell’s August warning that poor candidate quality could stop the party from flipping the Senate.

‘This is a pivot point for the Republican party. Donald Trump is no doubt in the rearview mirror. It is time to move on with the party,’ Geoff Duncan, the Republican Lt. Governor of Georgia, told CNN. 

Ignoring the races where his favorites lost, he told followers on Truth Social that it had been a ‘GREAT EVENING’. In an interview yesterday, he said he deserved credit if Republicans won – but shouldn’t be blamed in the scenario of a loss. 

‘If they win I should get all the credit. And if they lose, I should not be blamed at all. But it will probably be just the opposite. When they win, I think they’re going to do very well, I’ll probably be getting very little credit, and if they do badly, they will blame everything on me.

‘I’m prepared for everything. We’ll defend ourselves.’ 

He also took credit for Ron DeSantis 2018 win, saying he ‘was not going to be a factor’ in the race before his endorsement. 

‘He was not going to be able to even be a factor in the race. And as soon within moments, the race was over. 

‘I got him the nomination. He didn’t get it. I got it, because the minute I made that endorsement, he got it.’ 

‘Then he ran and he wasn’t supposed to be able to win. I did two rallies, we had 52,000 people each one and he won. I thought that he could have been more gracious. But that’s up to him.’  

The separatist Scottish National Party boasted that it will ‘pull the strings’ of a minority Labour government after the Tories suffered a local election meltdown today.

Rishi Sunak has been left reeling as voters in England dealt a series of stinging blows, stripping the Tories of control in dozens of town halls and kicking out more than 700 councillors. Losses could top 1,000 by the time counting concludes tonight.

Labour is now the largest party in local government for the first time in more than two decades. It racked up significant gains to take charge of councils such as Medway, Swindon, East Staffordshire, Bracknell Forest and Dover, while the Lib Dems took Surrey Heath in Michael Gove’s constituency.

But experts cautioned that Sir Keir’s vote share does not look enough to win an overall Commons majority.

Instead he could be left needing to do a deal with either the Lib Dems or Scottish nationalists to prop him up in No10. 

A jubilant SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn said he expected to hold the ‘balance of power’ after the general election next year.

His party is bound to demand another Scots independence referendum as the price of their backing, although it is also facing its own problems with a police probe into its finances.

Unhappy Conservative MPs admitted the party’s results were dire, but insisted there was little evidence voters were ‘rushing’ to Sir Keir. 

‘They have had this wonderful opportunity to stick two fingers up to the government,’ one senior backbencher told MailOnline. ‘The Lib Dems wouldn’t have done so well if he was more dynamic.’ 

Mr Sunak tried to put a brave face on the ‘disappointing’ results and dismissed calls for a change in approach, insisting he would keep focusing on the public’s ‘priorities’ such as cutting inflation. He is likely to get breathing space because attention will move on quickly to the coronation.

But one minister told Mail Online: ‘Tory voters feel let down by Tory policies that aren’t conservative.’ 

And former Cabinet minister John Redwood renewed his call for immediate tax cuts, saying: ‘If the PM wants to win back lost Conservative voters he should try offering some Conservative policies.’

Some Tories criticised the government for failing to stick to housebuilding targets – although others said pressure to build more had hurt them at the ballot box.

Party chair Greg Hands upped the ante in a message to activists this evening, conceding that the results were ‘disappointing’ and a ‘massive wake-up call’.

Appealing for donations, he added: ‘I don’t want to see Keir Starmer reopen Brexit.

‘I don’t want to see Angela Rayner enthusiastically give in to every union demand.’

Speaking in Medway, where his party took charge to end 23 years of blue rule, Sir Keir hailed ‘fantastic results across the country’. ‘Make no mistake, we are on course for a Labour majority at the next general election,’ he said.

In more body blows, the Lib Dems have seized Windsor & Maidenhead – where Theresa May is MP – and Stratford-on-Avon in Nadhim Zahawi’s seat, and are hoping to take over in Michael Gove’s Surrey Heath back yard. 

Tories could yet ship more than 1,000 seats overall. Bright spots have been rare as the pummelling took in ‘Red Wall’ areas and traditional heartlands.

But respected elections expert Professor Michael Thrasher told Sky News that the national vote share should temper the jubilation for Labour.

The 1.7million votes counted so far show the Tories on 28-30 per cent, with Labour considerable ahead on 18-20 per cent. The Lib Dems have surged to 18-20 per cent.

Prof Thrasher said that was ‘very good results but not quite getting over the line’ for an overall majority at a general election. He suggested it was ‘plausible’ that Labour could govern alone, but it would depend on how they fared against the SNP in Scotland. 

Separate estimates by Professor Sir John Curtice found Labour advantage was nine points. 

‘Although Labour have met the minimum threshold they set themselves, the party will be disappointed that it has not been any more successful this year than last,’ he said. 

Tory sources argued that Tony Blair was much further ahead in 1996, and David Cameron enjoyed a 13 point lead in 2009.  

The Tories have lost control of councils in Brentwood, Tamworth, North West Leicestershire, Hertsmere, East Lindsey, South Kesteven, East Hertfordshire and South Gloucestershire. 

The Conservative majority in Welwyn Hatfield – Grant Shapps’ constituency – has been wiped out. 

Labour celebrated victories in Plymouth, where the Conservatives had been running a minority administration, and Stoke-on-Trent – a key battleground ahead of next year’s general election. They were also jubilant about a mayoral win in Middlesbrough.

The party boasted that their performance so far, if replicated at a general election, would be good enough to see Sir Keir become PM. That would require a massive double-digit swing.

Angry local leaders blamed a backlash over the cost of living, access to GPs, and housing. Some Tories renewed calls for immediate tax cuts. 

In both Tamworth and North West Leicestershire there were signs that recent Westminster sleaze scandals had damaged the Tories as they lost control of both councils.

Tamworth’s local MP is Chris Pincher, the former Conservative whip who faced groping claims last summer in a scandal that ultimately led to Boris Johnson’s downfall as PM.

The North West Leicestershire MP is Andrew Bridgen, who was kicked out the Conservative Party last month following his claim that Covid vaccines were ‘the biggest crime against humanity since the Holocaust’.

As well as their gains in Plymouth and Stoke-on-Trent, Labour held on to councils in Sunderland, Chorley, Halton, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, South Tyneside, Sefton, Exeter, Stevenage, Ipswich, Lincoln, Coventry, Salford, Sandwell, Reading and Bassetlaw.

They failed to gain a majority in Hartlepool by just one seat, two years on from suffering a devastating Commons by-election loss in the ‘Red Wall’ area.

The Tories did hold on to many councils across England – including Broxbourne, Harlow, Redditch, Basildon, Havant, Rushmoor, North East Lincolnshire, Thurrock and Dudley.

Mr Sunak – who arrived at CCHQ with bags of comfort food this morning – pointed to ‘progress’ in areas such as Sandwell, and said he was concentrating on ‘delivering’ issues such as lower inflation and stopping Channel migrants. 

He said it was ‘always disappointing to lose hardworking Conservative councillors’ but added: ‘I’m not detecting any massive groundswell of movement towards the Labour Party or excitement for their agenda.’

Labour gloated that they had spoiled Mr Sunak’s ‘political honeymoon’. 

But senior Tory MPs said Mr Sunak was not being widely blamed for the mess the party was in. 

One insisted he must keep being ‘steady’ and showing the government is competent, before bringing forward tax cuts before the election.

‘You can’t do them unfunded,’ the MP said. ‘It has got to be properly explained… you can’t do it yet.’ 

Another Conservative with a marginal Red Wall seat told MailOnline that Labour was not on track to win outright, predicting that the Tories would end up ‘in the 280s’ for seats and Labour ‘the 290s’.

‘There’s nothing I have seen that changes my opinion that Labour will form a minority government,’ they said. ‘Probably a supply and confidence with the SNP.

‘We are not going to get a majority. We will be out of power.’ 

The MP predicted that the Labour Left would see that as an opportunity to push Sir Keir to adopt their policies, in the same way the Brexiteer ERG group had when the Tories had a slender majority. 

On Mr Sunak’s fortunes, the backbencher said: ‘Everybody’s keeping their mouths shut because they think we have got to steady the ship. Whether that carries on is another question.’ 

SNP Westminster Leader Mr Flynn said: ‘It’s increasingly clear that the SNP can hold the balance of power after the next general election – putting Scotland in prime position to pull the strings of a minority UK government.

‘Voting SNP is the best way to beat the Tories in Scotland – and every vote for the SNP will be crucial to ensure Scotland wields real power and influence.’

From 7am to 10pm yesterday, voters across England visited polling stations to choose around 8,000 councillors in 230 councils.

But interpreting the outcome is not straightforward, as the seats up for grabs were last contested in 2019 – when both the Tories and Labour were in dire positions.   

Mr Sunak has already lined up a fightback, with long-awaited proposals to improve access to GPs due to be unveiled next week.

Downing Street has drawn up plans for a health-focused mini-relaunch in the coming days to demonstrate that the Prime Minister is focused on delivering on the public’s priorities.

The package will include the Government’s delayed primary care plan which is designed to free up hundreds of thousands of GP appointments by asking pharmacists to issue more prescriptions.

The Tory MP in Plymouth, Johnny Mercer, who is the veterans’ minister, said it had been a ‘really terrible night for us here in Plymouth’.

Pointing to a row over tree-felling by the council, he added: ‘There’s a number of factors at play – locally it’s been very difficult, the Conservative group here has been through a very difficult time.’

As well as their success in the South West, Labour were also celebrating their candidate Chris Cooke defeating the independent incumbent to become the new mayor of Middlesbrough. 

Lib Dem leader Ed Davey dodged questions over whether he would prop up Sir Keir Starmer in power after shocking the Tories in Windsor.

Sir Ed hailed seizing control of the council as he visited the town, staging an awkward photo op with a large clock to show Rishi Sunak his ‘time’s up’.

He said he was proud that Katy Perry and Lionel Richie would be performing in Lib Dem territory at the coronation concert this weekend. 

But he repeatedly ducked questions on what he will do if Labour falls just short of a majority at the next general election.

Local Tories pinned the blame for poor council election results on a failure to grip issues such as the NHS.

Kent MP Kelly Tolhurst blamed ‘uproar’ against ‘unrealistic housing targets’ that have forced councils to ‘build really significant numbers of homes. 

Outgoing Medway council leader Alan Jarrett told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme the government must ‘get their act together on a number of fronts’.

He said that included ‘being clearer about housing requirements… and a really big issue here is access to GP provision’.

Others highlighted the turmoil at Westminster over the past year. 

‘Nationally and locally we’ve had a very difficult 12 months and I think the electorate have responded to that and voted as they see fit today,’ Jeremy Oates, the Tory leader on Tamworth Council, told the BBC.

Chris Mitchell, a former local Tory leader who lost his seat on Worcester Council to the Greens tonight, said: ‘The political backdrop of Westminster undoubtedly is a key factor, which we heard on the doorstep.’

Virge Richichi, a former chair of North West Leicestershire Council and a current councillor, said: ‘We’ve been dealt a pretty bad hand over the past three or four years from Boris, Liz Truss and now Rishi Sunak.

‘And hopefully Rishi Sunak will put us on the right track again.’

Prior to polling day, the PM had predicted a ‘hard night’ and warned that – despite ‘good progress’ since he entered No10 – Tory councillors could yet be punished for the turbulence of the past 12 months at Westminster.

Mr Sunak personally paid for a delivery of 10 large Domino’s pizzas at Tory HQ last night ahead of votes being counted across England. 

The local council seats being decided this year were last contested in 2019, at the nadir of Theresa May’s time as PM.

Following a poor performance that night, Mrs May went on to suffer humiliation in European Parliament elections just three weeks later, which swiftly led to her resignation.

But Labour was also failing to make major inroads at the time with an unpopular leader in Jeremy Corbyn.

Polling experts have said that Labour needs to score a victory of more than 10 per cent in the projected national vote share in this year’s local elections to show that Sir Keir is on course to be the next PM.

Sir Tony Blair had double-digit local election vote share victories in the lead-up to New Labour’s landslide in 1997, as did David Cameron’s Tories before 2010 when they ended up in coalition with the Liberal Democrats.

Labour gaining 700 seats or more would be the party’s best local election performance for at least 10 years.

And gains above 500 seats would point to Sir Keir being poised to win the keys to Downing Street at the next general election, experts have said.

Thursday’s local elections were the first time it has been compulsory for all voters in England to show photo identification at polling stations. There were regional pilots previously.

There were reports of confusion at ballot stations over new ID rules, with the Lib Dems complaining that the numbers are ‘significant’.

Some said they turned up to vote with photo ID only to be told it was the wrong type – while others claimed ‘greeters’ were asking for identification and turning people away outside, meaning that records would not be kept.

The craze for #dogsatpollingstations even got in on the act, with one owner creating an ID for her pet.

But the Electoral Commission said their initial assessment was that ‘overall, the elections were well run’.

People were required to show a form of photo identification, such as a passport, driving licence or blue badge.

Other forms of identity that were being accepted include biometric residence permits, defence identity cards, and national identity cards issued by the EU, Norway, Iceland or Liechtenstein.

Supporters say it is normal to show ID in much of the rest of the world, and the move protects the integrity of the process. But critics argue it could deter young people and those from poorer communities.

There have been questions raised about why bus and travel passes for older and disabled people were accepted as photo IDs, but that young people’s travel cards were not.

President Joe Biden is feeling vindicated after holding off a Republican red wave on Tuesday evening, a move that has boosted his prospects going into 2024 presidential campaign.

‘He’s running,’ a White House official told Politico’s Playbook.

After calling Democrats last night, the president made another round of congratulatory calls on Wednesday morning, including to Speaker Nancy Pelosi and a Republican: Ohio Governor Mike DeWine.

The White House released a video montage of the president on the phone with various candidates. Biden was visibly gleeful, offering his congratulations, telling them he’ll sleep better knowing they won, and saying to them: ‘God love ya.’ There was even a cameo by Commander Biden, the president’s dog. 

He also spoke with Representative Matt Cartwright, Representative Teresa Leger Fernandez, Kansas Governor Laura Kelly, Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers, and Representative-elect Robert Garcia.

And he spoke with Democratic Senators Mark Kelly and Raphael Warnock, whose races have yet to be called.

Finally he talked to Representative Sean Patrick Maloney and Representative Val Demings – both of whom lost their contests. 

Republicans are still expected to win control of the House when all the votes are counted but there was no massive GOP victory, which is what Democrats feared. 

Control of Congress has yet to be called as results are still needed in several competitive House districts and key Senate contests. 

It’s quite the turnaround for Biden, who many Democrats held at arms’ length going into Election Day, spooked by his low approval ratings and voters unhappiness with the high cost of living.

Worries about how Democrats would fare in the midterms even had some in the party talking about who should replace Biden as their presidential nominee in two years.

Even with more than 60 House races and four Senate races yet to be called, Biden is expected to defy historical tends of massive losses for a president’s party in the midterms. 

The only modern president also to defy that trend was George W. Bush in the wake of the September 11th attacks, when his popularity was at an all-time high. 

Biden is already doing better than Barack Obama and Bill Clinton did in the first midterms of their presidency. 

Obama saw his party lose 63 House seats and six Senate seats in 2010. Clinton lost 54 in the House and eight in the Senate in 1994.

President Biden spent election night at the White House where he called more than 30 Democrats to offer his congratulations on their wins. He even shot off a text to Democratic candidate John Fetterman after Fetterman beat celebrity Dr. Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania’s competitive Senate race.

Even without a red wave, the results of the midterms will reshape Biden’s next two years in office. If Republicans take control of the House, as expected, they have pledged to launch a series of investigations into the administration.

Biden, at 79, has said repeatedly he plans to run for a second term. But he is expected to discuss the matter in depth with his family when all of them are together for the holiday season.

In a potential warning sign for 2024, around two-thirds of voters in a survey by AP VoteCast said they think Biden is not a strong leader. More than half said the president isn’t honest or trustworthy and that he doesn’t have the mental capability to serve effectively as president.

But, for the moment, the White House is focused on the results from Tuesday. 

Official point to their successful push of abortion rights and democracy as part of the reason Republicans didn’t get the gains they expected.

Multiple states with abortion-related ballot measures all looked headed toward victories for abortion rights advocates, underscoring the Democrats’ argument that reproductive rights was a huge issue for their base this year after the Supreme Court decision to strike down Roe vs. Wade. 

And it wasn’t just an issue that Democrats supported. 

In the red state of Kentucky and the battleground state of Michigan,  voters enshrined abortion rights in their state’s constitution – joining Democratic California and Vermont in taking that step. 

But some observes would argue Biden best helped his party on election night by staying out of the way. 

The president held few campaign rallies this election year, sticking to smaller events and fundraisers. He mostly targeted blue areas, pushing for Democrats to get out and vote. 

But his record was on the ballot even if he is name was not. And voters made it clear they remain unhappy with the state of the economy under his stewardship. 

Voters said inflation was their top concern this election year, exit polls found, followed closely by abortion.

About 33% of voters called inflation the most important issue as they cast their ballot, according to the exit polls of voters conducted by the television networks, with about 27% citing abortion. 

Other voters cited crime, gun policy and immigration as their chief concerns. 

In troubling signs for Biden, three-quarters of the electorate that voted Tuesday felt negative about the economy and more than three-quarters said that inflation has caused hardship for them and their family over the past year, the exit polls found.

They gave the president a 45% approval rating for his time in the Oval Office, citing their unhappiness with the economy.