The rise of weight-loss drugs isn’t only shrinking Americans’ waistlines, it could also shrink food corporations’ bottom lines. 

Some experts predict junk food companies – already battling a rise in health conscious customers – could face a tobacco-like demise due to drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy, which reduce cravings and make people feel full longer. 

Big banks, such as Morgan Stanley, predict 24 million people, or seven percent of the US population, will be taking weight-loss drugs by 2035. 

An analysis by the bank also predicts patients prescribed the drugs will consume one-quarter of the candy, confectionary and other junk food they did before – slashing billions of dollars from annual revenue.

And corporations are already spooked. A recent analysis found executives at junk food companies are increasingly talking about the medications with investors. 

Morgan Stanley’s food analyst Pamela Kaufman said in a report: ‘The food, beverage and restaurant industries could see softer demand, particularly for unhealthier foods and high-fat, sweet and salty options.’ 

The new class of medications can lead to a 20 to 30 percent reduction in daily calories, and people tend to eat less high-sugar and high-fat foods, meaning the makers of chips, cookies and baked goods could take a hit, with banks predicting a drop in consumption by as much as three percent through 2035.

While any negative impacts are likely to be gradual, investors and c-suite executives have already begun to worry. 

Reuters’ Breakingviews scoured the transcripts of corporations’ presentations, events and earnings calls, which is a conference between the management of a company, financial analysts, media and investors.

It found in 2022, there were 18 mentions of Wegovy, Ozempic and Mounjaro. So far in 2023, at least one of these drugs was mentioned in calls 71 times.  

Morgan Stanley’s research found 73 percent of people on the weight loss drugs ate less confectionary food, which includes sugary candy, chocolate and some baked goods. 

Seventy percent of people consumed fewer sugary drinks; 69 percent ate less cookies; and 67 percent reached for fewer salty snacks. 

These drastic reductions could spell trouble for the mega-producers of these types of food, including Cadbury and Oreo producer Mondelez International, Nestle, which makes Hot Pockets and Häagen-Dazs, and Kraft Heinz, which produces products like Jell-O and Kraft Mac and Cheese. 

These companies dominate the global market for snacks, which is currently valued at half a trillion dollars, and they should brace for falling demand.

The hospitality industry is also taking a hit. The same survey found 77 percent of people on weight-loss drugs took fewer trips to fast-food establishments and 74 percent ate at pizzerias less. 

Like snack-makers, major players in the fast food industry, such as McDonald’s, Burger King and Yum Brands, which owns KFC and Taco Bell, could see falling demand, with analysts forecasting a drop in sales between one to two percent by 2035.

While two percent may not seem like a lot, it equates to nearly $7 billion.   

Alcohol will also take a hit from the rise in weight-loss prescriptions. Two-thirds of Americans on these medications report consuming less alcohol and nearly one-quarter stopped drinking alcohol altogether. 

Banking analysts projected US-focused alcohol companies face the highest risk and can expect a two percent decline in consumption by 2035. 

The implications of weight-loss drug approval and popularity extends beyond the food and beverage industries.

Financial analysts also predict companies that make products to treat conditions stemming from obesity could also take a hit.

Companies that manufacture products for sleep apnea, a condition in which sufferers intermittently stop breathing while asleep, will likely see a reduction in value because approximately 70 percent of sufferers are obese. 

Additionally, companies that sell joint replacements should also expect their valuations to decline. 

And rival weight-loss businesses, such as WW International, formerly known as Weight Watchers, has seen its shares plummet by about 70 percent since Wegovy was approved in June 2021. Jenny Craig, a similar business, shut down in May after more than 40 years because of growing competition from weight-loss drugs. 

August house prices fall at their steepest pace for half a decade

By John-Paul Ford Rojas

Published: 19:05 EDT, 20 August 2023 | Updated: 19:05 EDT, 20 August 2023

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A Florida woman who has been taking a weight-loss injection for nearly a decade is urging Americans to stop taking these drugs solely for weight loss. 

Danielle Payton, 33, is thought to be one of the longest-serving patients on a GLP-1 agonist, which was first approved in 2010. 

These drugs are at the center of concerns about long-term safety risks, already being linked to severe vomiting and suicidal thoughts.

Ms Payton – a publicist – began taking the once-daily injection Victoza – a precursor to Ozempic and Wegovy – in 2014 to stave off type 2 diabetes.

She weighed 209 pounds at the time and was prediabetic. She was told by her doctor if she didn’t lose weight, she would have to add diabetes to her long list of chronic illnesses.

Ms Payton originally went to her doctor for a breast reduction. She was a size 38F at the time. 

‘[The doctor] wouldn’t put me on the operating table, and he said I had to lose weight,’ Ms Payton told DailyMail.com.

She had to get down to 165 pounds before the doctor would perform the surgery.

Doctors said that taking the medication could help her lose a bit of weight, though the drug is not approved for weight loss.

‘I never thought it would go this route of losing so much weight because of an injection that ended up being not to lose weight,’ Ms Payton said. 

‘I was given a shot and told, “This is going to stop you from getting diabetes. The side effect is you might lose a little weight.”‘

Now, nine years later, Ms Payton is down to 120 to 130 pounds. 

‘I was not told, nor did I even think, that I could lose between 80 and 90 pounds. Ever,’ she said. 

Victoza was approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in 2010 to treat type 2 diabetes in adults.

Similar to popular injections Ozempic and Wegovy, the drug binds to the GLP-1 receptor, which triggers hormones in the brain to slow digestion and keep the stomach full. This reduces cravings and the risk of overeating. 

Unlike these, which use the active ingredient semaglutide, Victoza uses liraglutide. While the drugs are largely similar, some studies suggest semaglutide is more effective for weight loss. 

A study published last year in JAMA, for example, found that participants who took semaglutide had a 16 percent weight change compared to liraglutide participants who saw a 6.4 percent difference. 

However, there’s little long-term data on GLP-1 agonists. And, neither Ozempic nor Victoza are FDA approved for weight loss.  

Despite surging across the US, there have been widespread fears about Ozempic, which has been linked to detrimental side effects like severe vomiting and suicidal thoughts. 

Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, manufacturers of Ozempic and sister drug Wegovy, have also come under fire in a lawsuit over claims the drugs cause gastroparesis, or stomach paralysis. 

On Victoza, Ms Payton’s weight loss was gradual.  

‘It doesn’t come off immediately. You start seeing results after a couple months,’ she said. ‘It really took me like seven months to go from like 209 to 175.’

She estimates that it took about seven years total to get down to her current weight.  

She also didn’t intentionally change her diet. However, she found herself choosing odd combinations. ‘Your taste buds change,’ Ms Payton said. 

‘When I first went on the injection, I thought I was like a pregnant, hormonal woman. All I wanted was pickles, green juices, and like the weirdest things that I had never craved before in my life.’

‘It’s not that I changed my diet, per se…it’s that the shot actually changes how you look at food, what food becomes attractive to you, at least in my experience.’ 

‘It’s a mind game.’ 

Victoza also slashed Ms Payton’s appetite, which is a common side effect. 

When she first started taking it, she would go to the grocery store and stock up on a fridge full of healthy foods.

However, ‘I would look at it and say, “None of this looks appetizing.” I couldn’t eat it anymore.’

She also experienced constipation and bouts of nausea and vomiting, which have since subsided.

Ms Payton has since nixed the weird cravings, but they have left her with more sustainable habits. 

Instead of giving into temptation and snacking too much, she now only eats when she’s hungry.

‘The shots basically taught me to do that,’ she said. 

However, Victoza has left a lasting impact on her social life and mental health.

Friends have shamed her at group dinners for not being hungry, even when those friends have gone on to take Victoza and similar drugs for weight loss rather than diabetes. 

‘There’s a lot of shame that comes with taking the shot,’ Ms Payton said. 

Losing so much weight has led to judgment.

‘It’s a stark difference for your friends,’ she said. 

‘Unfortunately, friendships have been lost over taking medications like this. People have been like “You’re too thin.” And I’m like “You don’t get it. This is not a choice.”‘

Doctors have told Ms Payton that she will likely have to remain on Victoza for the rest of her life to keep from developing diabetes. 

She takes about a dozen other medications every day for multiple chronic illnesses and said that staying on Victoza is well worth not having to deal with diabetes. 

‘If I don’t have to get diabetes and go on multiple other medications, to me, that’s a win,’ she said.

‘[Victoza] is part of my daily routine, and my daily routine is what keeps me from getting progressively sicker, so as much as it sucks, it’s also what keeps me going.’

Staying on the medication long-term has been difficult as Victoza, much like Ozempic and Wegovy, has been affected by shortages from it becoming more and more popular.

Last December, she had to go off the shot for several months, leading her to gain back 15 pounds. 

‘I was freaking out. I was like, “You guys don’t need it. You’re just doing this to get thin, and I’m doing this so I don’t get diabetes,”‘ she said. 

‘It is a vicious, vicious game.’ 

Despite her mental health and social struggles, Ms Payton still considers the medication a healthy option for prediabetics and diabetics.

‘Just don’t listen to the background chatter and do it for yourself so that you can lead a healthy life going forward…so you’re not stuck with diabetes,’ she said. 

However, she encourages those taking diabetes shots for weight loss to seek out other options.  

‘Really take into consideration that people actually need this medicine and that there are other ways that those people can lose weight,’ she said. 

‘Please stop taking the supply that’s left in this country because it is dwindling by the day. And we don’t know whether we’ll be able to get the next script.’