The 118th Congress is set to begin at noon on Tuesday but as of Monday evening, the House of Representatives‘ majority party is still divided over who will lead the chamber for the next two years.

House Republicans’ public divisions over current Leader Kevin McCarthy‘s bid for the House Speakership has already set their newfound power off to a bumpy start.

The GOP have 222 seats in the new Congress and McCarthy needs 218 votes, so he can only afford to lose four members to win the gavel. 

So far there are a total of 14 members of his caucus who have at least strongly suggested they’re voting against him.

The disarray culminated in a late afternoon meeting between McCarthy, his allies and some of his critics including Reps. Matt Gaetz and Scott Perry.

At around 5pm ET, Republican lawmakers were seen entering the House Speaker’s chamber. McCarthy’s staff moved furniture into that office earlier in the day in an apparent show of confidence – though it’s reportedly standard protocol to make the move so early.

Gaetz told reporters the meeting was ‘brief and productive’ but insisted he was still opposing McCarthy, according to a video taken by NBC News’ Haley Talbot.

He’s one of five House Republicans who vowed to vote against the GOP Leader under any circumstance.

McCarthy’s allies however, like incoming House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, expressed confidence after leaving the meeting. 

‘He’s going to be speaker,’ Emmer told reporters, according to CBS News.

McCarthy and his supporters have spent weeks trying to convince his critics, mainly conservatives to his right, to fall in line behind the California Republican. But they want concessions that moderates in the party – and until recently, McCarthy himself – have been unwilling to give. 

In a Sunday letter to colleagues, McCarthy announced several key concessions including a motion to vacate the chair with a five-vote threshold in exchange for conference-wide support.

Under the current proposed rules, it would allow any five House Republicans to call for a vote for a new Speaker. Moderates argued that it would fuel instability within the conference, comparing it to hanging a sword of Damocles over the party leader’s head.

But later that night, a group of nine additional current and incoming House Republicans signed onto a letter calling McCarthy’s announcement of concessions ‘almost impossibly late.’ 

Multiple reports have indicated that conservatives will prop up McCarthy’s No. 2, Rep. Steve Scalise, in the California Republican’s place.

Promising to further fuel the chaos, however, moderate Republican Rep. Don Bacon suggested on Monday night that such a mutiny would not go over easy.

According to CBS, Bacon told reporters that he’s considering nominating an outgoing member of the current Congress for Speaker if the five ‘Never Kevin’ Republicans put up Scalise to McCarthy.

Bacon wrote an op-ed in the Daily Caller on Monday calling McCarthy’s leadership ‘superb’ but reasserting that he was willing to work with Democrats for an alternative should the anti-McCarthy rebellion succeed. 

‘Much has been made of me saying I would work with moderate Democrats to elect a more moderate speaker,’ Bacon wrote.

‘But my actual words were that if the five refused to coalesce around what the vast majority of the conference wants, I’m willing to work across the aisle to find an agreeable Republican.’

McCarthy has had a wide spectrum of surrogates trying to persuade the holdouts over the last several weeks, from traditional conservatives like Gingrich to Donald Trump and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene – allies of many of McCarthy’s biggest detractors. 

But their strategy to pressure detractors to conform and warning that a worse alternative was on the horizon appeared to do little to move the needle. 

Greene wrote on Twitter after reportedly also meeting with McCarthy on Monday night, ‘Unreal that people claiming to be America First are negotiating for ‘Me First’ positions when it comes to the Speaker’s gavel.’

‘The base deserves the truth. They would be as sickened as I am,’ the far-right Georgia lawmaker said.

But Rep. Andy Biggs, one of the five original ‘Never Kevin’ Republicans, tweeted after 8pm ET on Monday, ‘Even after the McCarthy Machine’s attempts to whip votes and smear my name for several weeks, McCarthy is still well short of the 218 threshold.

‘Our party still requires new leadership and I will continue to oppose McCarthy for House Speaker,’ Biggs said.

The FBI search of former Donald Trump‘s Florida home has triggered feverish speculation that he will soon announce a 2024 run – exciting supporters but worrying party leaders and donors that he could ruin hopes of retaking the House and Senate in November’s midterms.

‘I think he’s running,’ said Eric Levine, an attorney and longtime Republican fundraiser. ‘The only question is whether he announces before the midterms, which would be a disaster.’

Multiple party insiders told DailyMail.com they fear an early announcement would divert fundraising away from candidates and towards the Trump war chest. 

And it would turn the midterms from being a winnable referendum on Joe Biden‘s presidency – its economic crises and foreign policy missteps – to a Trump versus Biden beauty pageant.

Trump grabbed the initiative by posting a campaign-style video on his Truth Social platform after midnight on Tuesday. He calls America ‘a nation in decline’ and slams Biden before ending with the slogan: ‘The best is yet to come.’

At the same time, he has upped the number of fundraising emails sent to his distribution list.

‘Mar-a-Lago was raided,’ said one sent on Wednesday. ‘The radical left is corrupt.

‘We must return the power to the people.’

FBI agents entered Trump’s home as they investigated the removal of classified records from the White House when his term ended in 2021. 

The result was outrage among Republicans, who accused the Biden administration of politicizing the FBI and the Justice Department.

Allies have been urging Trump to jump straight into the campaign to retake the White House. 

John Fredericks, radio host and chair of the Trump Virginia campaign in 2016 and 2020, said he should announce ‘today’ and launch a tour of swing districts immediately.

‘It leads him to a landslide victory in November 2024, it leads to a massive 50-70 House gain and three in the Senate,’ he said.

‘This has activated the Trump MAGA base like nothing I’ve ever seen. It has activated independents and this is going to backfire on the administrative state and the leftwing Marxists who are now in charge.’

Trump insiders have been divided for months on when to announce. Some have pushed for weeks to announce quickly in order to head off possible opponents, particularly Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis who has been making headline and gaining ground.

Others prefer a more conventional route, announcing after November’s midterms.

But Trump himself has floated the idea of announcing ahead of this year’s elections in order to create the biggest splash. 

That fills Republicans working on fall campaigns with dread. 

A senior strategist, working on several midterm campaigns, said an early announcement would be a disaster for hopes of winning back the House and the Senate, diverting fundraising from candidates to Trump. 

‘By taking this action, the FBI has greatly increased the likelihood that Trump will announce his candidacy before November, which Democrats would absolutely love to see,’ said the source, who worked on the 2020 Trump campaign and asked for anonymity to avoid drawing fire on his candidate.

‘If Democrats retain control of the House, the FBI will remain safe from oversight and accountability.’

There is also horror on the Hill that it would let Biden off the hook. He is deeply unpopular and, if the elections follow the usual historical pattern of thumping the party in power, Democrats can expect to lose seats in both the House and Senate.

‘That would be a significant gift to Democrats. he would suck up so much oxygen and remind voters of why he lost last time, instead of thinking about the multiple failures of Joe Biden.’ 

For his part, Levine said the raid on Mar-a-Lago was outrageous. 

‘But the fact that this was outrageous doesn’t necessarily qualify Trump to become president,’ he said.

‘So I don’t think it changed the landscape for running for president at all, but it may change the landscape for when he announces.’

Trump’s grip on the activist base remains tight.

At the weekend, the Conservative Political Action Conference in Texas revealed that 69 percent of attendees want Trump as their candidate in 2024.

Ukraine’s western allies are ‘all running out’ of weapons to donate, the UK Defence Secretary has said, meaning they may have to buy more to keep Kyiv‘s forces supplied in the face of Russian aggression.

Ben Wallace said that while Western support for Ukraine remains steadfast, ‘we have seen reality, which is that we are all running out’ of defence equipment to donate. 

While Western weapons stockpiles may be dwindling, Russian forces are already lacking in much-needed equipment, he said, with a stark warning that: ‘if you punch Russian forces in the wrong place, they’ll collapse’.

The Defence Secretary was also confident about the progress of the Ukrainian forces, even suggesting that Ukraine could retake Crimea as early as this year in his interview with The Washington Post.

It comes after Rishi Sunak reiterated the UK’s unfaltering military support for Ukraine last week, as Britain sent its most potent non-nuclear missile, the Storm Shadow, to support the resistance against Vladimir Putin’s invasion.

The donation made the UK the first Western country to offer long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine, and added to the extensive variety of weapons gifted to Kyiv by the British government.

Britain has pledged tanks, missile launching systems, NLAW anti-tank weapons, tanks and drones to Ukraine.

The UK has so far committed £4.6 billion in arms, the second most of Ukraine’s allies behind the US ($37.6 billion).

It was reported last month that the US has so far sent weapons valued at about $21.1bn to from its stockpiles, including HIMARS launchers, Javelin anti-tank weapons and a surface-to-air missile system.

Mr Wallace’s assessment of existing munitions levels comes after strategic analyst Howard Wheeldon shared concerning analysis around Britain’s military capability earlier this week.

He told the Mail: ‘All credit to the UK government for its fast response and actions, but the sad fact is that after providing an unquantified number of probably time-expired Storm Shadow missiles, the UK has little else it can give.

‘The notion that we might also have been able to provide fast jet capability left much to be desired, for the simple reason we haven’t got enough to defend the UK and continue our international commitments.

‘When it comes to equipment capability and overall available capacity, we are a nation that, when it comes to defence, is already drained of available resource.’

A report published in March outlined that if donations to Ukraine continue at their current rate, it would take ten years for British weapon stocks to reach an acceptable level. 

Addressing the London Defence Conference last week, the Prime Minister said that the UK is committed to supplying Ukraine with weapons over the long-term.

Mr Sunak said: ‘We were the first country to provide [Ukraine] with main battle tanks and longer-range weapons, we’ve also helped with air defence and trained Ukrainian forces.

‘We’ve led the charge on making sure they’ve had the resources and we are going to be steadfast in our support of Ukraine. Our support is not going to go away.

‘Ukraine can count on its allies, particularly the UK, to continue supporting them. We are united.’

Mr Sunak added that Britain was ‘leading the conversation’ with its allies on what long-term agreements can be made with Ukraine to ensure the country’s security.

The Prime Minister also reiterated his ambition to increase UK defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP – but did not set a date for doing so.

Suella Braverman speeding row is a ‘witch-hunt’, the Home Secretary’s allies claim as Labour steps up calls for an inquiry into her handling of a ticket

• Sunak deciding to ask ethics chief to investigate if she broke ministerial code
• Braverman was caught speeding last summer when she was attorney general

By Jason Groves Political Editor

Published: 17:47 EDT, 23 May 2023 | Updated: 19:37 EDT, 23 May 2023